Generative AI may dazzle, but predictive AI is the real game-changer for hiring, promotions and workforce planning.
According to a recent survey by Resume Builder, 66% of US managers have consulted ChatGPT or another large language model (LLM) when making layoff decisions. A majority also use AI to determine raises (78%) and promotions (77%). These data points reflect a broader trend of generative AI infiltrating business processes, which frankly, they aren’t meant to. Foundation models aren’t designed to handle high-stakes, domain-specific situations, like the ones mentioned.
While these tools may seem convenient for drafting emails or job descriptions, they’re not designed to comprehend the complexities of business data or make informed, context-specific decisions. For functions like hiring, performance evaluation and workforce planning, a quieter but far more effective type of AI is often better suited to the job: predictive AI.
Generative AI: showy but shallow
At its core, generative AI models such as ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini and other emerging large language models (LLMs) don’t actually understand what they’re saying. It generates text by identifying which words are most likely to follow based on a massive dataset of human writing. While this can produce coherent and sometimes helpful responses, it’s essentially sophisticated autocomplete. These systems are not making decisions based on deep, task-specific knowledge or understanding; they’re delivering the most statistically likely string of words in response to a prompt.
This creates real limitations in enterprise settings. For example, if an HR professional asks a generative AI to write a job description, the result may sound polished, but likely wouldn’t reflect the company’s unique requirements, team dynamics or mission. Most existing HR tools already have templated job descriptions built in, so using a chatbot adds little value and could even introduce risk if the output reflects biased or irrelevant information pulled from unknown sources.
Even worse, when HR teams start using generative AI for more sensitive areas, such as performance evaluations, promotions or layoffs, it becomes dangerous. These systems are not built to make such judgments and can’t reliably or fairly support high-stakes decisions. How would you feel if your career path depended on the results of a chatbot query, not knowing if any other research or due diligence was done on your behalf?
The case for predictive AI in HR
Predictive AI, on the other hand, performs a fundamentally different task. Rather than generating human-like language, it identifies patterns in historical data to make informed forecasts about future behavior or outcomes. For example, predictive AI can analyze employee data to assess which candidates are most likely to succeed in a specific role, improving hiring accuracy and retention.
For industries like HR, here’s why predictive AI may win the edge over generative AI:
- It’s trained on your actual business data. Predictive models are built using data specific to your organization. The result is an AI that, unlike its generative counterpart, understands your company — not just generic trends scraped from the internet.
- It supports repeatable, high-stakes decisions. Predictive AI can accurately forecast a candidate’s future job performance based on objective factors, which can reduce bias and increase retention. It can help tailor development plans, recommend compensation packages and even assess layoff potential — based on real patterns, not a simple query.
- It enables strategic planning. Companies with common challenges, like high turnover, need better tools for talent retention and workforce development. Predictive models help identify who is likely to leave and why, what keeps top performers engaged, and how to align people strategy with business goals.
- It’s more reliable. Because predictive AI uses structured data to solve specific problems, its results are measurable and testable. You can validate its performance over time, refine it with better data and explain how and why decisions are being made — something critical for compliance and transparency.
That said, predictive AI is not without challenges. Lest not forget Amazon’s internal (and biased) recruiting tool; the model had been trained on historical hiring data that reflected the company’s male-dominated tech workforce, and as a result, downgraded resumes that included words like “women’s” (as in “women’s chess club captain”). Similarly, generative AI systems trained on broad internet data may unintentionally reproduce stereotypes or overlook important contextual factors specific to a company or role.
When used in decisions around hiring, promotion or compensation — areas already fraught with bias concerns — these tools can amplify existing inequities and expose organizations to compliance violations and reputational damage. So remember, predictive AI is only as good as the data it’s trained on. And that data can be hard to gather, clean and contextualize. Every new customer implementation requires work: understanding what data is available, aligning models with business goals and ensuring responsible use.
Generative AI has captured the world’s attention, and in many cases, it’s a perfectly useful tool. Unfortunately, the buck stops at generalized models for enterprise use. Fields like HR require actionable, specific and trustworthy insights based on real data. Predictive AI offers that, and while it might not grab headlines, it delivers value where it counts: in hiring better candidates, retaining top talent and building resilient, high-performing teams.
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